Thursday, July 9, 2009

Let's all get confused about oil prices together


The headline on Bloomberg's main site says:

Oil Falls Below $60 for First Time Since May as Fuel Inventories Increase


You click, and then the headline says:

Oil Rises From 7-Week Low as U.S. Jobless Claims, Dollar Drop


Crude oil rose from a seven-week low after the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell and the dollar slipped against major currencies.

Oil snapped a six-day slump, the longest losing streak this year, as initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest since January and car sales in China surged the most since 2006. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, spurring investors’ demand for dollar-priced assets to hedge against inflation.


Well the intraday didn't look very optimistic, just open Yahoo and look at the chart for USO.

Apparently trying to be "up to the minute" current by financial sites regarding very volatile commodity prices creates a temporal sense of schizophrenia.

Here's my 2 cents - pure uninvolved observer regarding oil prices:

After oil prices fell to unreasonably low prices as the leveraged manipulators collapsed starting September 2008, they have artificially been raised in anticipation of global economic recovery this summer. As we approach the middle of the summer and there are no real signs of recovery, to the contrary - the "summer oil trades" fizzles much sooner than prior years.

This could lead to a much stronger collapse in oil prices and an even stronger collapse in all commodity prices. While the unsustainable US national debt is assumed to eventually create "hyper inflation", evidence shows it has not yet happened. As such, deflationary trades are being played - and traders of all sorts have access to notes and etfs- to play in these fields, where they were prohibited from gambling before (DEE, DDG, DUG, and other such tradeable tools).

The fundamentals of gas prices, that is national reserves, inventories and OPEC production cannot fight the global winds causing such fundamentals to shift. Traders and economic strength of nations are what is driving oil prices, and while multi-day decline in prices of a commodity is bound to break at some point, all traders are aware and respect the trend.

The trend is frugal. The trend is thriftiness. Not just on a personal level, but on a global economic level.

I can't see into the future, I don't have such talents - but this is what I see as evidence of happening right now.

Cheers!

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