Tuesday, September 15, 2009

When artificial global recovery is no longer artificial

I'm just floating an idea, not a theory, not a conspiracy. Part of the global attempt to halt the financial catastrophe placed governments as the providers of credit to coorporations and emerging markets. The governments also floated different stimulus projects in an obvious attempt to push consumers into spending. I'm not saying the latter was too successfully (although some evidence would suggest it did).

In any case, the credit markets indicate a simple truth: The free market discounted all bonds of all types as junk - because the free market well dried up and no huge amount of money could recover it. The disease started with sub-prime backed US mortgages, but spread too quickly to emerging markets and corporate debt as soon as Lehman collapsed.

While this got very little attention from the media, at a particular point in time, all bonds of all creeds bottomed and shot up in an illogic way. I've mentioned this before, I find it difficult to comprehend why would you trust corporate debt to park your cash there. The artificial recovery imposed by world governments relieved the pain from emerging markets and eliviated their stress in attempt to refinance their debt.

This is what I call the artificial recovery. The recovery of the credit markets by government intervention.

But at this point, the countries outside of the US might feel so relieved - that they start consuming. Sure, not the private sectors who never had any power at emerging markets, but rather governments. Could it be that the artificial recovery is leading to a real one?

Could it be that the 'cash for clunkers' type programs have pushed a snow ball that will drive economies to consumption?

I don't know. I'm trying to understand this as I pontificate.

Thinking out loud
Cheers!

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