Friday, May 21, 2010

Where were you two weeks ago: Robini says extra 20% tumble in stocks a-comin'

Well - he was saying that half a year ago - I think. At every point in time you can find both bulls and bears in the commentary arena. The thing is - bears are shy or less vocal on bull runs, and bulls are in hiding during bear raids.

It is the news outlets that promote to headlines what deems relevant to yesterday's theme. So here we go:
Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place: Roubini
Stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent in value as the world economy weakens, noted economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

As the market slides into correction territory, Roubini said weakness in euro zone countries and a slowdown in the US and other developed countries will make things even more difficult for investors in the months ahead.

"There are some parts of the global economy that are now at the risk of a double-dip recession," said Roubini, head of Roubini Global Economics. "From here on I see things getting worse."

Prices in both stocks and commodities are likely to take a hit, and investors may only be safe in cash and other safe havens. Roubini said investors also can use options to hedge against future market risk that he said is sure to come as conditions weaken in the US, Japan, China and through much of Europe.


Let's recount why we are in a downtrend:
1. Greece in huge debt, riots, bailouts.
2. Germans unhappy with bailout of Greece.
3. Euro-zone financial system in credit crunch (under reported)
4. P.I.G.S - riots in the streets, not in news in America
5. Financial reform in the US brings uncertainty
6. Unemployment in the US not easing
7. The tail wags the dog - stock market rises, followed by slight economic improvement, stock market tumbles - you know what's coming next

Time to invest SH?


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