Monday, March 28, 2011

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

The crap that lands in my Yahoo mail spam folder

This should be funny... In my email spam folder - found today an invite to "fuckbook", my wife gets solicitation to get a "hot Russian wife".

All sorts of Islamic names keep sending me Nigerian sting emails. Does anybody still fall for these? Why bother? Is this done just to disrupt the email suppliers?

Fed Official: US approaching insolvensy


US Approaching Insolvency, Fix To Be 'Painful': Fisher
The United States is on a fiscal path towards insolvency and policymakers are at a "tipping point," a Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.

"If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent, the question is when," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said in a question and answer session after delivering a speech at the University of Frankfurt. "The short-term negotiations are very important, I look at this as a tipping point."

\But he added he was confident in the Americans' ability to take the right decisions and said the country would avoid insolvency.

"I think we are at the beginning of the process and it's going to be very painful," he added.

Fisher earlier said the US economic recovery is gathering momentum, adding that he personally was extremely vigilant on inflation pressures.

"We are all mindful of this phenomenon. Speaking personally, I am concerned and I am going to be extremely vigilant on that front," Fisher said in an interview with CNBC.

Got your atomic bomb shelter ready?

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Boom, Winning


Err, let's try that again - BOOM! WINNING!

Well, not that way. Win financially. Consider the following screen shot:

The results were achieved via EzBacktest, try it. I can't guarantee your own personal financial results, but I do offer you a great tool to try different investment scenarios.

A note regarding the 'bear/bull' simulation shown above, I've used two simple-moving averages for getting signals; 200 and 35, and had the signal activated when one crosses the other. The screen shot will provide you with the rest of the details on the right side where all of the text explains the allocations. When in bear signal, the portfolio is the IEF ETF at a 100% allocation.


The most expensive ETF out there: Actively managed bear HDGE

Interesting reading material and an interesting ETF to follow on performance, say - 2 years from now. The bigger question is, if a fund relies on the star quality of it's manager (actively managed) - then aren't you betting on the manager's continued employment? Hmmm....

AdvisorShares Debuts Active Bear ETF (HDGE)
AdvisorShares, the Maryland-based issuer behind many of the most popular active ETFs on the market, is expanding its product lineup. Today marks the debut of the Active Bear ETF (HDGE), a fund that seeks capital appreciation through short sales of U.S. stocks. The fund is sub-advised by Ranger Alternative Management, and the management team will employ a bottom-up, fundamental, research-driven security selection process.

Forensic accounting will be at the heart of the new ETF. In identifying securities to short, the fund managers will seek out those with low earnings quality or aggressive accounting that may be intended to mask operational deterioration and boost reported earnings in the short term. The managers will also seek to identify earnings-driven events that may trigger a price decline, such as downward earnings revisions or reduced forward guidance. According to the fund’s investment objective and methodology, potential warning signs are ranked in proportion to where they are located on the income statement–the higher up, the greater the cause for concern. Among the elements of reported financials that may be analyzed are revenue recognition policies, changes in inventory and reserves, and charges for restructuring and other non-recurring events.



Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Super duper funny: Geico - Do dogs chase cats?

Geico recently really raised the bar on funny commercials, woodchucks chucking woods and honest Abe insulting his wife weight were just the beginning...


PIMCO Total Return dumping government bonds?

No safe haven for one's savings.

PIMCO Total Return dumps government-related debt
The world's largest bond fund dumped all of its U.S. government debt in the biggest signal yet of how negative investors have become about the U.S. Treasury market.

The move by Bill Gross's $236.9 billion PIMCO Total Return fund (NASDAQ:PTTRX - News) comes in the wake of a vicious Treasury market sell-off and just days after he questioned who will buy Treasuries once the Federal Reserve halts its latest round of bond purchases in June.

Bond prices have come under severe selling pressure because of a strengthening U.S. economy and as investors brace for what could happen when the U.S. central bank ends its controversial quantitative easing program. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 9-1/2 month high of 3.77 percent on February 9, rising 40 basis points in the short period from the end of January.

Last week, Gross told Reuters Insider that a 4.0 percent yield for 10-year notes is a "rational expectation" if the Fed "disappears as the buyer of last resort," Gross said.

Are we looking at a stagflation catastrophe in the making? High interest rates, high unemployment, low growth, high inflation? What won't make you broke these days?

Saturday, March 5, 2011